Hobart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

153
FXUS63 KLOT 130510
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers through this evening, isolated TS possible.

- Uncomfortable heat and humidity will return for this weekend
  with heat indices 95 to 105 degrees.

- Shower and storm chances continue early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

The flood watch has been canceled, as our deeper forcing and
moisture axis has now shifted east into northern Indiana. There
is still some shortwave energy shifting northeastward ahead
of incoming mid level trough axis, but our local focus is on the
incoming trough and surface theta-e boundary. Earlier lightning
activity near Rockford has diminished as it has encountered
outflow and the worked-over atmosphere closer to the Chicago
area. Therefore, while an isolated lightning strike cannot be
ruled out as echo tops on these showers have occasionally spiked
up above 25kft, expect scattered showers with brief
moderate/heavy rainfall. With the low level atmosphere a bit
more stable, wind gusts should be limited to 30 mph or so.
Expect less coverage with time this evening.

RAP/HRRR guidance continues to depict some pockets of fog
tonight. Forecast soundings depict shallow moisture and a bit of
low level flow given some push behind the surface boundary, so
we don`t expect any widespread fog, though areas with heavier
rain/river valley may have some fog late tonight into early
Wednesday.

KMD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

GOES-19 water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level
trough descending southeastward through Minnesota, with an
associated surface cold front (based on recent surface
observations) extending along a Sioux City, SD to La Crosse, WI
line. Scattered showers and storms have already started to
develop in northern Illinois along a weak theta-e gradient from
Peoria to Chicago. Coverage is expected to increase, especially
south and east of Interstate 55 through this afternoon and into
this evening as the leading mid-level front descends
southeastward out of southern Wisconsin. Shear vectors are
slightly more normal than parallel to the boundary, so while a
line might try to form, more cellular to multi- cellular
clusters are favored. Recent mesoanalysis displays modest mid
level lapse rates and effective shear between 20 and 30 knots.
The threat for severe weather does seem marginal today (much of
the area remains in a level 1 out of 5 severe threat from the
SPC), it would most likely be from a water-loaded downburst that
may "splat" and create wind gusts that reach 50 to 60 mph. As
dew points have increased into the low 70s and projected
precipitable water amounts just under two inches, the bigger
concern is for heavy downpours and localized torrential
rainfall. Ensemble models are suggesting rain rates may become
1-2 inches per hour. Additionally, while individual storm
motions may be around 30 mph to the northeast, the boundaries
movement may only be around 10 mph, allowing for renewed
development and training storms over an individual area. Given
the wet antecedent conditions in the Chicago Metro and the humid
air mass, a Flood Watch was issued for Cook, DuPage, Will
Counties as well as Lake County Indiana for the risk for
localized flash flooding valid through midnight tonight.

Latest model guidance is suggesting that showers and storms
should move south and east of the area after 10 PM tonight.
Slight chance PoPs were maintained for some festering showers
into Wednesday morning as the surface cold front finally moves
through, switching winds to the northwest. Cloud cover will
decrease tonight, and with linger residual moisture and ambient
temperatures falling closer to the dew point temperature, it
would not be surprising if some shallow ground fog developed in
favored rural locations west of the Fox Valley. However, there
is some uncertainty with lingering cloud cover and surface winds
may provide just enough flow to prevent any dense fog from
developing. While trends overnight will be monitored, patchy
fog was kept out of the forecast at present.

Upper level ridging is expected to grow over the southern
Plains, expanding into Central Illinois Wednesday into
Thursday. With lowering dew points and better height rises, most
of the area is expected to remain dry during this period, with
more seasonable temperatures. The one exception is that few
models are still showing some diurnally driven showers/storms in
the far southeastern portions of the forecast area closer to
the front on Wednesday afternoon.

As the ridge axis grows and slides east over the forecast area
Friday and Saturday, southerly winds will help drive 850 mb
temperatures to at or above 20C. As moisture from the Gulf
moves northward, dew points will once again be on the rise
creating humid conditions. Temperatures are expected to increase
to 10 to 15 degrees above normal, and heat indices are expected
to climb at or above 100F. There is still some uncertainty in
how high heat indices will climb and if they could reach the
105F threshold for a heat advisory.

As the previously mentioned ridge builds through the end of the
week, an upper level low will develop and transit eastward
across Canada. As the low moves into eastern Ontario on
Saturday, there is a chance that a weak wave rides overtop the
ridge and provides some showers and storms in southern
Wisconsin. Models have flipped-flopped over the last two days
the southern extent of shower/storm development and recent
guidance is scaling PoPs northward. Best chances will be for
areas closer to the Wisconsin stateline, but confidence remains
low at this distance.

The upper level ridge will restrengthen and expand farther north
across the Great Plains on Sunday and into early next week. With
northwest flow setting up into area, chances for periodic
showers and storms will be possible through early next week and
felt no reason to adjust the PoPs the NBM provided.

DK

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

The main concerns for the 06Z TAF period include:

*Potential for MIFG overnight and early Wednesday, especially
 at GYY and RFD

Expect NW winds around 5 kt overnight into Wednesday. A lake
breeze will turn winds NE at the Chicago sites while moving at
below 10 kt. The 16-17Z window looks good for the wind shift,
but there is support for slightly earlier.

Additionally, shallow fog may develop across the terminals
overnight into early Wednesday. The highest confidence in
reduced vsbys is at RFD and GYY, but most guidance only bottoms
conditions out at MVFR.

Doom

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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